AGP Executive Report

Grain Trade: Latvia and its Baltic neighbours are pressing the EU to ban Russian grain transit, arguing Moscow should not profit from exports while disrupting Ukraine’s trade. The move could carry economic costs, a concern raised in Latvia’s debate over the proposal. Public Finances: Latvia’s Finance Ministry has proposed austerity measures, while the Fiscal Council chair says a temporary bank windfall tax could help reduce the deficit. AirBaltic: The airline plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it reshapes its fleet and network, putting employment under pressure across the region. Economic Conditions: Inflation held at 3.2% and industrial production edged up 0.3% in Latvia, pointing to modest activity growth.

Corporate: Grindeks’ Lithuanian subsidiary Grindeks Kalceks received a “Strongest in Lithuania 2026” creditworthiness award, citing its financial stability and timely payments. Fintech: US-listed Exodus says its planned acquisition of Latvia-based e-money firm TigSiPay is awaiting regulatory approval from the Bank of Latvia. Defence Innovation: Latvia’s new Autonomous Centre gives companies and soldiers a way to develop ideas together before procurement, without ruling firms out of later contracts. Trade: Latvia and its Baltic neighbours are pressing the EU to ban Russian grain transit, while a Latvian analyst warns the move could affect major US commodity traders. Digital Infrastructure: Latvia’s LMT and partner Santa Monica Networks completed private 5G trials at Lithuania’s Klaipėda port, demonstrating technology for autonomous inspections and faster operations. Air Travel: airBaltic plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it reshapes its fleet and network.

Trade and Transit: Latvia and its Baltic neighbours are pressing the EU to ban Russian grain transit. A Latvian analyst warns the move could affect American commodity traders and urges a closer look at the economic costs. Defence Industry: Latvia is setting up a framework for companies and soldiers to develop defence technology together, while Patria expands its Valmiera facility. LIAA is also tasked with boosting defence exports and attracting investment. Economic Pulse: Inflation held at 3.2% and industrial production rose 0.3%; the government has ruled out a fuel excise cut despite business pressure. AirBaltic: The airline plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it reshapes its fleet and network. Retail Investment: Lidl Latvia reports €420 million invested over five years, €305 million in taxes and 1,100 jobs.

Defence Innovation: Latvia’s new Defence Ministry-backed centre gives companies and the military a space to develop technology together before procurement, without jeopardising firms’ eligibility for future contracts. Fintech: US-listed Exodus has asked Latvijas Banka to approve its acquisition of Latvia-licensed e-money firm TigSiPay; the deal still needs regulatory clearance. AirBaltic: The airline plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it shrinks its fleet and network, a major restructuring for Latvia’s aviation sector. Trade: Baltic leaders are urging the EU to ban Russian grain transit, while critics warn the move could affect trade interests and Latvia’s economy. Payments: Mastercard’s offline payment system is already deployed in Latvia and is set to become a requirement for new cards and terminals across Europe in 2027. Economic indicators: Latvia’s inflation held at 3.2%, while industrial production edged up 0.3%.

Fintech: Exodus Movement has filed for Bank of Latvia approval to acquire TigSiPay, a licensed Latvian e-money institution; the deal still needs regulatory clearance. AirBaltic: The airline plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it reshapes its fleet and network, a major blow to employment across the Baltic region. Defence Industry: Patria is expanding its Valmiera production facility, while Latvia’s investment agency says it is stepping up efforts to grow defence exports and attract investment. Grain Transit: A proposed ban on Russian and Belarusian grain transit has prompted warnings about economic fallout, including effects on US commodity traders that handle much of the trade through Latvia. Economic Outlook: Latvia’s inflation held at 3.2%, while industrial production edged up 0.3%. The Finance Ministry is also proposing austerity measures as pressure grows to rein in the deficit.

Prices: Latvia’s annual inflation held at 3.2% in September. Transport costs rose faster as fuel prices climbed, while food prices continued to fall. Business Rules: The Saeima barred Russian and Belarusian citizens from owning significant stakes or exercising decisive influence in critical infrastructure businesses. Defence Industry: Patria is expanding its Valmiera production site to build and maintain armoured vehicles, adding local capacity and jobs. AirBaltic: The airline plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it reduces its fleet and network. Clean Aviation: NorSAF and Nova Pangaea plan a Latvia plant that will turn food waste into ethanol for sustainable aviation fuel. Investment: Latvia’s investment agency says it will lead efforts to boost defence-company exports and attract investment.

Critical Infrastructure: Latvia’s parliament has barred Russian and Belarusian citizens from holding significant stakes or decisive influence in critical infrastructure, including food, heating and medicine supply chains. Payments: Mastercard plans to require offline-payment support on new cards and terminals across Europe from 2027; Latvia already has the service, which can keep essential purchases working during outages. Defence Industry: Patria is building a new Valmiera facility to produce and maintain armoured vehicles, while LIAA is coordinating efforts to help Latvian defence firms win exports and attract investment. AirBaltic: The airline plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it reshapes its fleet and network, a major blow to employment across the region. Investment: INVL has sold 2,600 hectares of Latvian forest and agricultural land to a Danish-owned buyer, with plans to reinvest the proceeds. Industrial Output: Latvia’s industrial production rose 0.3%.

AirBaltic Restructuring: The airline plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it reshapes its fleet and network, a major workforce adjustment across the Baltics. Retail Investment: Lidl says it has invested more than €420 million in Latvia in five years, creating over 1,100 jobs and paying €305 million in taxes; its 39-store network is set to expand. Trade and Ports: Russian grain transit through Latvia doubled year on year in September as exporters sought alternative routes, putting Riga, Ventspils and Liepāja in focus amid regional calls to restrict such shipments. Industry and Finance: Latvia’s industrial production grew 0.3%, while Luminor provided €1.8 million to support forestry company LIVO Mežs. Government Formation: President Edgars Rinkēvičs has asked Andris Kulbergs to lead coalition talks; Kulbergs says the new government should pursue reforms while maximizing economic impact and limiting public resources.

Retail Investment: Lidl says it has invested more than €420 million in Latvia in five years, paid €305 million in taxes and created over 1,100 jobs. Its network now has 39 stores, with further expansion planned. AirBaltic Restructuring: The carrier has begun a collective redundancy process that could cut 500–700 jobs—up to 23% of its workforce—as it shrinks its fleet and route network around Riga. Coalition Priorities: Andris Kulbergs says he will seek partners committed to change, with a focus on economic impact and using fewer public resources. The new government will also need to get to work on the 2027 budget. Business Growth: Luminor is providing forestry firm LIVO Mežs with €1.8 million to boost logging capacity, expand timber yards and develop export markets. Economic Signals: Latvian industrial output rose 0.3% year on year in August, while retail trade fell 1.4% from July. Apple also raised prices for its Family subscription bundle in Latvia.

Government Formation: Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs said incumbent PM Andris Kulbergs (United List) should lead talks to form the next government after a decisive Oct. 3 election win, with coalition talks expected to show progress by early November. AirBaltic Restructuring: The national carrier plans to cut 500–700 jobs across Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn as it reshapes its network and fleet toward a smaller Airbus A220-300 operation and more ACMI partnerships. Industrial Output: Latvia’s industrial production rose 0.3% year-on-year in August, after a July dip, with mining and quarrying up sharply while utilities fell deeper. Banking & Cybersecurity: Latvia’s financial sector is on alert as regulators flag cyberattacks using suspicious IP addresses linked to multiple countries, including Latvia, urging internal reviews. Public Finance Tightening: Latvia’s Finance Ministry proposes austerity-style controls, limiting new state contracts and postponing non-critical spending until end-2026. Energy & Utilities: Rīgas namu pārvaldnieks plans to start the heating season next week, with gradual connection over three days and no planned cutoffs due to debts. Sustainability Pilot: Latvia is testing mobile waste collection points under the €2.64m SustainaCycle project to boost reuse and recycling of textiles, plastics and e-waste.

Government Formation & Economy: Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs said he will nominate PM Andris Kulbergs to form the next government after the United List’s election win, with coalition talks expected to show progress by early November. AirBaltic Restructuring: The national carrier plans workforce cuts of about 500–700 jobs across Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn as it implements a new business plan, including a smaller Airbus A220-300 fleet and more year-round ACMI partnerships, while saying the flight schedule won’t change. Public Finance Austerity: Latvia’s Finance Ministry proposes limiting new state contracts and postponing non-critical spending until end-2026, aiming to curb late-year budget commitments while keeping essential services running. Banking & Cybersecurity: South Korea’s regulators identified 33 malicious IP addresses tied to suspected AI-assisted attacks on financial firms, including one linked to Latvia, and ordered internal security reviews. Sustainability & Waste: Latvia, Estonia and Finland are testing recycling models under the €2.64m SustainaCycle project, including mobile waste collection points in Latvia’s Vidzeme region. Business & Trade Signals: Eurozone retail sales edged up 0.1% month-on-month, but Latvia saw a 1.4% decline. Corporate Finance: Luminor granted EUR 1.8m financing to forestry/logging firm LIVO Mežs to expand capacity and exports.

airBaltic Restructuring: Latvia’s flag carrier airBaltic says it is preparing “workforce adjustments” that could cut about 500–700 jobs across Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn as it reshapes its business model and fleet, with no final decisions yet on individual employees. Latvia Politics & Public Finance: After a decisive election win, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says he will “put order” in public finances, reviewing every expense and pushing for a coalition that matches United List priorities. Latvia Fintech & Capital Mobilisation: UN:BLOCK will bring 600+ fintech leaders to Riga to discuss MiCA, cross-border payments and how to unlock Latvia’s roughly €9bn in savings and pension assets for investment. EU Budget Pressure: Seventeen EU states including Latvia urge the Irish EU presidency to protect cohesion and farm funding in the 2028–2034 budget, warning cuts would hit businesses and communities. Trade & Business Links: LIAA signed a three-year cooperation deal with Canada’s Sherbrooke quantum ecosystem to support commercialisation, exports and joint projects. Latvia Visa Policy: Latvia’s Interior Ministry proposes temporarily suspending visa issuance to Uzbek citizens after alleged crimes soon after arrival, as Riga and Tashkent also seek to expand business ties.

Latvia Election & Fiscal Reset: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List won a record mandate in the Saeima vote, setting up coalition talks while he promises to “put order” in public finances and review every expense. airBaltic Restructuring: The state-linked carrier plans workforce “adjustments” affecting about 500–700 jobs across Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn as it continues Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring. Fintech & Capital Mobilisation: UN:BLOCK Fintech is set to bring 600+ leaders to Riga to discuss MiCA licensing, cross-border payments and how to unlock Latvia’s roughly €9bn in dormant savings and pension assets. EU Budget Fight: Seventeen EU states, including Latvia, urged the Irish presidency to protect cohesion and farm funding in the 2028–2034 budget. Corporate Restructuring: Amber Latvijas balzams is under court protection after a tax debt, cutting costs and shifting some production to Lithuania. Energy & Industry Signals: Latvia’s business scene also intersects with regional security and investment priorities as EU and NATO planning intensifies.

Latvia Election Watch: Andris Kulbergs’ United List has won a record share in Latvia’s parliamentary election, projected at about 35.4–35.6% and 42 of 100 seats, setting him up to keep a pro-European, pro-Ukraine line—though coalition talks are still needed after at least one current partner looks set to miss the 5% threshold. Security & Cost of Living: The campaign was dominated by Russia-linked fears, hybrid threats, and living costs, with populists also gaining support. Ukraine War Spillover: Latvia’s political direction is tied to the wider war context, including reports that Ukraine expects intensified Russian strikes on energy and civilian-linked infrastructure this winter. EU Budget Fight: Separately, 17 EU leaders—including Latvia—have urged Ireland’s EU presidency to protect farm and cohesion funding in the next long-term budget, warning cuts would weaken the bloc. Fintech in Riga: UN:BLOCK Fintech is set for 15 October in Riga, targeting 600 attendees and offering direct regulatory sessions on MiCA and other EU rules.

Latvia Election: Andris Kulbergs’ pro-European United List won Latvia’s parliamentary election, taking 42 of 100 seats (record since independence) and setting up coalition talks to keep a pro-Ukraine course as populists gained ground. Security & Economy: The campaign stayed dominated by Russia fears, hybrid threats and cost-of-living pressure, with Latvia’s next government expected to balance defence spending with economic growth promises. EU Budget Fight: Seventeen EU leaders, including Latvia, urged Ireland’s EU presidency to protect farm and regional funding, warning cuts to the CAP and Cohesion Policy would weaken the bloc. Fintech in Riga: UN:BLOCK Fintech will bring 600+ leaders to Riga on 15 October, with a strong regulatory focus including MiCA, stablecoins, DORA and a sandbox session with Latvijas Banka. Markets: EU wheat prices edged higher on export hopes and euro moves, while traders watched Black Sea disruptions and upcoming tender results.

Latvia Election Watch: Exit polls show Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ pro-Ukraine United List leading Latvia’s Saeima vote with 35.6% (with Latvia First at 11.3%), setting up a strong but coalition-dependent path to government as voters weigh Russia security fears and the cost-of-living squeeze. Coalition Math: Even a clear win may not keep the current lineup intact, with some partners projected below the 5% threshold, meaning negotiations will likely reshape the ruling bloc. Ukraine War Spillover: The campaign’s tone is reinforced by reporting that Ukraine expects intensified Russian strikes on oil infrastructure this winter, while insisting it will avoid civilian targets—an outlook that keeps defence and energy policy front and centre for Latvia. EU Budget Pressure: Separately, 17 EU leaders including Latvia urged the Irish EU presidency to protect Cohesion Policy and the CAP from cuts in the 2028–2034 budget talks, arguing farm and regional funding are key for competitiveness and food security. Investment Pipeline: Latvia’s investment agency LIAA said it reached nearly 90% of its 2026 investment-attraction target in nine months, with projects spanning energy, defence/dual-use, fintech and logistics.